AviationRegister                    E-Xpert Witness Journal

December 2009

Cargo traffic: Air cargo traffic grew 9.5% globally in November 2009, the first expansion since May 2008 says IATA.

Capacity: For the first 11 months of 2009, international airfreight traffic was down 12.7% from the same period last year.

Cargo traffic regionally: Compared to November 2008 Asian grew 14.5%,   North American 13%, Middle East 21% & Latin American 17.5%.

Capacity: Airfreight capacity for the full year of 2009 was down 9.2%.

Chinese carriers operated 1,399 aircraft as of November 2009.

China's airlines earned $1B in the first 11 months of 2009 vs. $400M in the year-ago period, according to CAAC.

China’s revenues: Total operating revenue was down 3% $29B & expenses fell 3.6% to $28B.

China’s payloads: Passengers carried grew 19.6% to 211.5M as domestic traffic grew 21.8% to 198.2M & international traffic fell 5.5% to 13.3M

CAAC predicted that domestic passenger traffic in China would also grow by double digits in 2010.

Cargo volume in China rose 5.7% to 4M tonnes through November 2009. Domestic cargo grew 8% and international cargo grew 0.2% to 1.1M tones.

CAAC says that steady domestic economic growth & global economic recovery are the basis for the turnaround.

ATA (Air Transport Association) reports that passenger revenue fell 7% in November versus the same month in 2008.

Traffic: November was the 13th consecutive month of annual revenue declines, due mainly to 12 consecutive months of ticket price declines.

Yields (Domestic): ATA says November domestic yield/RPM excluding taxes declined 4.6% year-over-year to 14.47 cents.

Yields (International): Transatlantic yield declined 8.2% to 12.07 cents, transpacific yield fell 14.9% to 10.88 cents, & Latin America yield dropped 11.5% to 13.36 cents.

Yields (Cargo): October cargo traffic (RTMs) fell for the 15th consecutive month, down 1% year-over-year, reflecting a 3% domestic decline and flat international traffic.

OAG reports global airline capacity for December is up 4% over December 2008 levels.

OAG reports global airline capacity for December is up 4% over December 2008 levels.

ICAO reports that scheduled passenger traffic fell 3.1% in 2009 vs. 2008. This is the largest drop ever recorded by the global airline industry.

Traffic: Scheduled passenger traffic on airlines of Member States of the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) declined some 3.1% in 2009 vs. 2008.

Aircraft capacity as measured in available seat kilometers (ASKs), declined by 3.1%, in response to the declining traffic.

Traffic decline is the largest on record for the industry and reflects the 2009 drop in the world gross domestic product. 

Traffic fell by 2.9% in 2001 due in part to the 9/11 terrorist attacks in the United States.

International traffic fell by about 3.9 % as domestic traffic fell by 1.8%.

ICAO is forecasting a 3.3% traffic growth rate for 2010 and expects it to continue in 2011, on the way to the traditional growth trends of 5.5% per year.

Cargo traffic fell 15% in 2009 vs. 2008 as measured by total freight tonne kilometers (FTK)

Cargo traffic fell 6.2% in 2001.

Cargo traffic weakness is attributed to the decrease in world trade volumes in 2009 due to the global economic downturn.

Cargo traffic of Asia Pacific carriers, which accounts for some 36% of global FTKs, declined by 14% in 2009

Cargo traffic of European and North American carriers that each account for 25% share of global FTKs fell by 18% & 17% respectively in 2009.

October 2009

Traffic: The Boyd Group says the 2009 trend of declining passenger traffic will continue through 2014.

Traffic: The Boyd Group says 749M passengers flew in 2008, 675M passengers will fly in 2010 and 659M in 2014.

Traffic: Bureau of Transportation Statistics (BTS) reports that U.S. airlines carried about 346M passengers in the first six months of 2009.

Traffic: BTS reports that U.S. domestic traffic fell 9% up to June 2009 vs. the same period last year.

Aircraft retirement: The Boyd Group says 622 of 1,500 regional jets flying in North America will be retired by 2014.

Air cargo at European airports fell 11.7% year-on-year in August as passenger traffic fell 4.5% says the airports association ACI Europe.

Airports Council International (ACI) widely watched indicator of economic health continued an improving trend that started this summer.

September 2009

Profits/Losses: IATA expects the combined global loss for 2008/09 to be $27.8B due to falling demand and intensified airline competition.

Traffic: IATA says passenger traffic fell 1.1% in August following a 2.9% fall in July.

Freight: IATA says demand fell 9.6% in August compared to the 11.3% drop in July.

Passenger load factors: Rose 1.2% to 80.9% in July as airlines cut capacity.

Fares: Average fares fell 22% for premium seats and 18% for economy seats in August as demand fell.

China traffic:  CAAC says Chinese airlines carried 22.64M passengers in August, up 41.6% from the year-ago period,

China freight: CAAC says cargo traffic increased by 18.1% to 390,800 tonnes in August.

China load factors: Passenger load factor grew by 1.7% to 79.9%.

ATA member airlines and affiliates transport 90 percent of all U.S. passenger and cargo traffic.

Traffic: ATA says U.S. airline passenger revenue fell 21% in August over year-earlier results as carriers dropped prices by double-digit percentages and passenger volume continued to fall.

The volume of passengers traveling fell 6% in August.

Cargo: ATA says cargo revenue declined 13% in July over last year.

Traffic: ATA says August was the 10th consecutive month that revenue fell from a year earlier.

DOC’s Direct operating costs: The average price of flying one mile fell 17% vs. the 18% decline in the per-mile price reported in July.

Revenue outlooks: Q3 airline revenue will be about 20% below the same period in 2008.

Global growth rate of passengers carried (ICAO Reporting Form A-1). Note the assumption of 5-year moving average of annual growth rates, excluding operations in the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS).(Figure 9-2, Aviation and the Global Atmosphere,Special Report,  ICPP 2000)