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AviationRegister E-Xpert Witness Journal
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December 2009
Transport Select Committee rejects a proposed second runway at Stansted and recommend Gatwick airport for expansion.
Heathrow Airport: There are economic benefits to a third runway as long as there is better access to the airport and it is subject to tough environmental restrictions.
Heathrow is a major European hub, but only six UK cities have flights into it so direct access from the national rail network is needed to maximize the economic benefits.
Future of Aviation report argues for UK countrywide high-speed rail links to support a projected surge in demand for air travel.
Future of Aviation report states that Heathrow and other airports must be better connected to prevent them losing out to more accessible European travel hubs.
Future of Aviation report states that the environmental impact of an increase in air travel could be reduced through the introduction of.
High-speed train network in the UK may provide a competitive alternative to some domestic flights air and rail operators dispute this.
November 2009
Eurostar celebrated its 15th anniversary in November 2009.
Eurostar: Since services first started on 14 November 1994, more than 100M people have used it, with 10M users in 2009.
Eurostar vs. flight: You arrive half an hour before your departure vs. a two-hour flight check in procedure.
Eurostar departure from London’s St Pancreas Station directly to Gare du Nord in the centre of Paris.
Eurostar can be taken to Brussels, Belgium or Lille in northern France plus seasonal destinations.
Eurostar runs direct seasonal services to Avignon in the south of France, and winter services to Bourg-Saint-Maurice, Aime-la-Plagne and Moutiers in the French Alps.
Eurostar market share: Accounts for 80% of all rail or air passengers travelling directly between London and Paris vs. London's airports combined share of 20%.
Eurostar competition: From 1 January 2010 passenger train services through the Channel Tunnel opened up to competition.
Eurotunnel competition: The opening up of the Channel Tunnel to competition was a European Union decision but that only applies to seated passenger services.
Fee per train: There is space for rival train firms and as the owners charge an access fee per train, it is in their interest to see more go through the tunnel.
Eurostar competition: Will take until 2012 due to the logistics of getting the specific rolling stock needed to gain the strict safety clearances to go through the Channel Tunnel.
Eurotunnel competition: Eurotunnel's monopoly on shuttle services carrying people in their cars, coaches, and trucks through the tunnel from Folkestone in Kent to Coquelles near Calais will continue.
Eurostar: In 5 to 10 years, they will launch direct services to Amsterdam, which attracts more than three million travelers annually.
Eurostar's most likely first competitor will be Germany's state-run railway company, Deutsche Bahn.
Deutsche Bahn (Germany) would like to run direct services from London to Frankfurt and Cologne.
Deutsche Bahn's focus is for its timetables from Brussels to Frankfurt & Cologne fit in with Eurostar's arrivals, to ensure that waiting times for customers continuing on to Germany are as short as possible.
Nederlandse Spoorwegen (The Netherland's state-run railway company) is a possible provider of services through the Channel Tunnel from London to Amsterdam.
Chinese airlines are facing the prospect of canceling once-profitable domestic routes owing to increasing competition from high-speed rail.
Most of China's big cities and secondary cities will be connected by high-speed rail by 2020, which will have a big impact on domestic carriers
Spring Airlines, the country's most successful LCC, has stopped flying from Shanghai to both Zhengzhou and Wuhan because it was losing passengers to the train.SA's solution is to avoid opening short-haul routes that are shorter than 1,000 km.
Sichuan Airlines closed its Chengdu-Chongqing service on Nov. 16 2009 as loads have fallen below 50%.
China Southern Airlines Chairman Si Xianmin admitted that high-speed rail is a more attractive option for passengers because of its better safety record, convenience and lower fares.
China Southern has more than 160 domestic routes, with about 38 competing against high-speed rail.
In response to competition from rail Chinese carriers will expand international networks and allocate more capacity to profitable international routes and raise the proportion of international routes from the current 17% to 20% in the next 3-5 years.
Train vs. Plane compared: Train beating the airplane on (a) price (b) convenience (c) overall travel time on intercity routes up to 600 miles.
Train vs. plane prices: High-speed trains typically cost $115M per train-set equivalent to the cost of two A320s or two B737NGs.
Train & rail upgrade: Costs about $1.2M per mile to upgrade existing track for high-speed trains.
Train manufacturers: Alstom/TVG (France), Bombardier (Canada), Hitachi/Bullet train (Japan), Siemens (Germany).
Train: What is a high-speed train? Rail services that regularly operate at or above 200 km/h (125 mph) on existing tracks or 250 km/h on new tracks (155 mph).
Trains vs. car: High-speed trains can reach 410 km/h (255 mph) about half the speed of a commercial jet.
Train technology: New high-speed train technology changing from the locomotive to an electric motor attached to the wheels along the train carriages.
Train vs. plane markets: Russian enters the high-speed train market that includes China, France, Germany, Korea, Italy, Spain, Taiwan, & UK.
Train vs. Planes in the USA: High-speed trains will compete with intercity auto travel in 11 travel corridors by 2020 including Los Angeles/San Francisco.
Trains & Stimulus: U.S. congress approved a $13B, 5-year high-speed rail development program in April 2009.
October 2009
Rail & Stimulus funds: A total of $8B in grants is allocated from the fund for nationwide rapid rail development in the U.S.
California: California voters approved issuing $9.95B in bonds to finance high speed rail construction.
California: The proposed 800 mile bullet-train system from San Diego to San Francisco is expected to cost $45B.
California asked for $4.7B in grants from the fereral stimulus fund to begin the bullet train project.
California will match the federal grant with $5B in local, state and private financing.
California's bullet-train will travel from Los Angeles to San Francisco in 2 hours 40 minutes, traveling at speeds of more than 200 mph.
August 2009
Airport gate leases. About 8% of airports have terminal leases of 10 years or longer, about 82% have terminal lease terms that are 5 years or less, up from 71% with leases of similar duration 5 years ago, says ACI.
Airport gate leases: Under the current Atlanta gate-lease, airlines’ costs amount to less than $5 per passenger, vs. $17 at New York’s JFK & $11 at LaGuardia.
Airport gate lease rates: The new 30-year 142-gate/terminal lease at Hartsfield-Jackson Atlanta International Airport will cost Delta $1.35 Bn.
Hartsfield-Jackson Atlanta International Airport has 182 gates & is adding 12 more. Delta & its regional partners transport 73% of the airport’s passengers.
Airports are factories for airlines, and cost between $5 & $10 per enplanement.
August 2009
Slot swap: Delta & US Air have agreed to trade slots (time-specific landing rights) that will make Delta stronger in New York and US Air stronger in Washington, D.C.
Slot swap: Continental & AirTran propose to swap at LaGuardia, Reagan National & Newark airports.
Summer 2009
Administration had no legal authority to auction airport slots
The Associated Press reported from Washington (October 2008) that U.S. aviation officials have no legal authority to auction takeoff and landing slots at New York City airports, a scheme the government devised to try to curb crippling traffic jams at major airports, congressional investigators said.
The legal opinion from the Government Accountability Office came amid a legal fight among airlines, airport operators and the Federal Aviation Administration over the U.S. Administration's plan to trim flight delays by auctioning off slots at New York City-area airports.
The opinion was another blow to administration officials who had hoped to get their air traffic experiment off the ground before they leave office in January 2009.
"We conclude that FAA may not auction slots under its property disposition authority, user fee authority, or any other authority, and thus also may not retain or use proceeds of any such auctions," GAO general counsel Gary Kepplinger said in a letter to lawmakers who had sought the legal opinion.
The GAO's top lawyer concluded that for the first time in 40 years, the FAA claimed it may assign airspace as its "property," but the laws covering the FAA were never written to include such a definition of property.
Transportation Department spokesman Brian Turmail said the GAO was unfamiliar with aviation law, and had little time to study it before reaching its conclusion.
"Should Congress give the agency an opportunity to conduct a more thorough review, we are confident that GAO will better understand both the validity and the effectiveness of our approach," Turmail said in a statement.
A number of congressional lawmakers had requested the legal opinion as they tried to stop the FAA's limited tryout of a slot auction in the fall of 2008 at Newark Liberty International Airport.
"This once again shows that the DOT needs to put a stop to this ideological battle that would cause chaos at New York airports. The administration has tried to jam through a half-baked plan that can't even be implemented," said Sen. Charles Schumer (D-N.Y)., one of the agency's biggest critics.
Then Transportation Secretary Mary Peters proposed the auction plan after widespread complaints in 2007 about rampant flight delays across the country. The government claimed two out of three flights delayed 15 minutes or more were due to cascading backups beginning at one of the New York metropolitan area's three airports: Newark, Kennedy and LaGuardia.
Trying to fix the problem, the government imposed new limits on the airports and announced plans to auction off some takeoff and landing slots to control the crushing demand for time and space. By auctioning slots, the government reasoned, market forces will help restrain such demand and make the system operate more efficiently.
Opponents sued.
Airlines and airports contend the auction proposal will add new costs and make a mess of day-to-day airport operations.
The government pressed ahead with a trial effort at Newark to auction off just two slots, but an internal FAA agency told them to wait.
An agency order lifting that stay was issued after the GAO legal finding, meaning the agency could in theory proceed with its trial auction in Newark.
Amtrak is Essential to the Transportation System of the USA but Remains Underfunded
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Every functioning economy requires a passenger rail system. And every passenger rail system requires a public investment. That’s why, Amtrak needs realistic and reasonable Amtrak funding levels."
While Amtrak is a crucial form of transportation in the Northeast of the USA, it is also an important transportation option throughout the United States. Amtrak serves more than 500 stations in 45 states, employing more than 24,000 people and operates more than 22,000 routes. On weekdays, Amtrak operates up to 265 trains per day, excluding commuter trains. An Amtrak train is in operation every minute of the entire year. Throughout Northeast USA, Amtrak intercity passenger rail represents a critical transportation link for many travelers. As Amtrak is currently structured, according to the DOT’s Inspector General, it would have to spend $500 million annually over 15 years to eliminate its backlog of capital projects.
Amtrak has estimated the cost of developing a national high-speed rail network at $50 to $100 billion over 20 years. By way of comparison, total highway spending – federal, state and local – for just one year exceeds $130 billion.
However, investment in the U.S. rail system has traditionally lagged far behind investment in air travel and highways. According to a Congressional Research Service analysis of per capita federal spending on transportation, the U.S. spends $79 per person for highways, while Amtrak received only $27 per person. Federal spending on other modes of transportation literally dwarfs the investment in rail, and has been increasing over the last 20 years, while spending on passenger rail has remained flat or declined. The U.S. ranks among the bottom of all industrialized nations in terms of support for rail travel.
The U.S. Senate Committee on Commerce, Science and Transportation believes that if the U.S. is to confront U.S. transportation challenges – from air traffic delays to highway gridlock – an strong passenger rail network must be part of the solution. And while the $2 billion that Congress provides Amtrak annually should prove adequate to cater for the spike in demand becaus eof high oil prices policy makers risk confusing Amtrak’s short-term survival with the long-term passenger rail enhancements that are key to the U.S.’s transportation future.
The American Rail Equity Act (AREA), which was introduced in 2003 was intened to meet the fundamental challenges facing intercity passenger rail. It was intended to fund Amtrak’s operations for six years at $2 billion per year. The legislation also created a National Passenger Rail Office within the U.S. Department of Transportation, and allowed Amtrak to deal directly with the Surface Transportation Board in scheduling disputes with freight railroads.
Most importantly, by providing $48 billion in tax-credit bonds for rail construction projects, the AREA bill tried to tackle the lack of capital investment in the U.S. rail system, as evidenced by Amtrak’s decrepit infrastructure. The capital funding contained in this legislation was the first step towards giving the U.S. the same kind of rail infrastructure that Western Europe and Japan enjoy. At the same time, it was hoped that the funding for capital improvements would take significant pressure off of Amtrak’s operating budget.
Source: U.S. Senator Olympia J. Snowe.
Developments in automobile fuel efficiency
Novemmber 2009
Fuel economy: The average car and light truck travels 21 miles per U.S. gallon according to the EPA.
Fuel efficiency: Average fuel efficiency of the “entire” US auto fleet increased by 3 mpg since Ford Model T and has barely improved since 1991.
Fuel burn reduction: If transportation fuel consumption in the USA is to fall by 10%, the average fuel efficiency across the entire fleet will have to rise to 19.1 mpg (8.12 km/l).
Source: Michael Sivak and Omer Tsimhoni, University of Michigan Transportation Research Institute in Ann Arbor. (S & T) Journal reference: Energy Policy (DOI: 10.1016/j.enpol.2009.04.001).
S & T analyzed the fuel efficiency of the entire US vehicle fleet of cars, motorcycles, trucks, and buses from 1923 to 2006.
S & T found that from 1923 to 1935 fuel efficiency hovered around 14 mpg (5.95 km/l), & fell to a low of 11.9 mpg (5.08 km/l) in 1973.
S & T found that by 1991, the fleet efficiency grew by 42% on 1973 levels to 16.9 mpg (7.18 km/l), a compound annual rate of 2%.
Stimulus: Efficiency improvements up to 1991 were in response to (a) the 1973 OPEC oil embargo and (b) the Iranian Revolution of 1979.
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Stimulus foundation: Both events disrupted oil supplies to the west. (John DeCicco, former senior auto issues expert at the campaign group Environmental Defense Fund).
Environmental concerns: Progress has stalled since 1979 despite growing environmental concerns.
1990s developments: From 1991 to 2006 the average efficiency improved by only 1.8% to 17.2 mpg (7.31 km/l).
1990s research: There were no external prods during the 1990s to improve fuel economy according to DeCicco.
Policy update: President Obama announced in May 2009 that new cars should average 35.5 mpg (15.09 km/l) by 2016.
Policy change: S & T say that the target improvements to new cars could still leave the efficiency of the entire vehicle fleet largely unaffected without changes in policy.
Financial incentives: Financial incentives were introduced in Europe and the USA in 2009 to promote owners of older vehicles to scrap them in favor of new cars.
Tax breaks should be given to encourage the development and introduction of fuel-saving technologies – particularly in the most fuel-hungry vehicles in each class say S & T.
Alternative technology: Electric vehicle research started in the 1990s, continues to advance and now has high-profile governmental backing.
Electric vehicle it unlikely to have a short-term impact on average fuel efficiency in the US.
China's high speed train investment is a global game changer
December 2009: China Railway High-speed "Harmony" train or "CRH" began fare-paying service Saturday 26 December.
China Railway High-speed (simplified Chinese: 中国铁路高速; traditional Chinese: 中國鐵路高速; pinyin: Zhongguo Tielu Gaosu abbrev. CRH) is the high-speed rail system operated by China Railways. Hexie Hao (simplified Chinese: 和谐号; traditional Chinese: 和諧號; pinyin: Héxié Hào) (Literally: "Harmony") is the designation for high-speed trains running on this rail system.
CRH1's are built by a joint venture, Bombardier & Sifang Power Transportation in Qingdao, Shandong Province. China Northern Locomotive and Rolling Stock Industry (CNR), China, is supplying 60 CRH5 200km/h eight-car trains based on Alstom technology. These trains are designed to meet UIC and EN international standards and each vehicle utilizes a high-strength aluminum alloy body shell weighing 8.4 tons (8.5 tonnes).
Train game changer: China’s latest express train (called Harmony or CHR) set a new world record on the longest track on earth effective December 26 2009.
Route record: Wuhan to Guangzhou, covering 680 miles (1,089 km) in 3 hours, at an average speed of 236 mph (380 km/h) vs. 9 hours previously.
China vs. world: China’s express trains average 236 mph (380 km/h), France’s AGV averages 174 mph, and Japans bullet train averages 162 mph.
Train capacity: Each train has a capacity of between 588 to 668 people in 8 coaches, depending on the formation of the train.
Train & Plane competition: The Chinese are building 42 high-speed routes and 8,000 miles of rail over three years forcing airlines to slash fares.
Price competition: One-way ticket costs $58 on the Wuhan-Guangzhou express train route.
Fares (average) on China’s high speed trains average $10 to $12 one way depending on length of route.
China’s railways were the main beneficiaries of the government's $585B stimulus package in 2009.
China’s high speed trains are designed to meet UIC and EN international standards and each vehicle utilizes a high-strength aluminum alloy body shell weighing just 8.4 tons (8.5 tonnes).
US high speed trains
The U.S. Administration allotted $1B toward a high-speed rail grant program in 2010 building upon the $8B down payment in the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009 aimed at achieving a practical and environmentally sustainable alternative to flying or driving, while at the same time investing in projects that create jobs and spur economic growth. The U.S. President’s Budget commits $10.3B to build, maintain, and improve mass transit projects to help fulfill the goal of reducing the Nation’s dependence on oil and minimize the environmental impact of transportation on the climate. The speedy and efficient movement of goods is necessary to maintain – and increase – the economic competitiveness of the USA in a globalized world. The DOT is targeting investments and deploying technology to reduce the number of hours freight carriers are caught in traffic, waiting at border crossings, or stuck in ports. The DOT budget provides $42.6B to ease the congestion that costs the USA in lost productivity.
Source: DOT January 2010
